Security. War on Terror. These are the things the Republicans want to make the fall elections about. Well, they might want to also play up gay marriage and immigration. I'm not sure those are winners this year as the white house and congress haven't been able to address those issues to the satisfaction of their base.
Rove & Co. are already trying to
spin the Lieberman flame out, suggesting Democrats are purging moderates and are unserious about combating terror. This is the kind of nonsense we've come to expect from former domestic policy adviser Rove, but why is
Jacob Weisberg taking the bait?
The Weisberg piece is pretty noxious. The Vietnam analogies are tired, and the reason Vietnam split the party was that the war was a JFK, Johnson/Humphrey mess and Humphrey got the nomination. Plus his biggest challenger was assassinated. That's the stuff that will split a party. Not resolution votes.
You know Weisberg has gone way out in the blue when he states
"Lieberman's opponents are not entirely wrong about the war." Yeah, you could say that. You could also say that they're not entirely right about the war, but they're a lot more right that Lieberman was/is. I don't know why Weisberg is still fighting the ghosts of Democratic past, but it's time to acknowledge that the left was pretty much right about the war.
So, Democratic primary voters have good reason to vote out hawkish incumbents, but that's not really happening.
Michael Tomasky illustrates this today in Slate. And if the Dems were "purging" all moderates and hawks, how come Cynthia McKinney went down on the same day as Lieberman? Sounds to me like Democratic primary voters are disposing of flotsam from all sides of the spectrum.
As to what took down Lieberman, it was mostly the war. But it didn't help that he announced a month ago that if he lost the primary, he would run as an independent. That reaked of incumbency run amok. This entitlement to remain in office beyond the party's interest, telegraphed long before any votes were cast, may have cost him this close primary.
Besides his insufferable habit of attacking other Dems at the drop of a hat, and the unbearable self-righteousness, there are other reasons to vote Lamont.
William Greider's 2002 piece on Enron Democrats notes that
"He frequently sermonizes on the moral failings of others, including other public figures. Meanwhile, he has shilled vigorously, sometimes venomously, for the very players who are new icons of corruption--major auditing firms, corporate executives who cashed stock options early while investors took a bath and, especially, those self-inflating high-tech companies in Silicon Valley that drove the stock-market bubble. As a New Democrat, Lieberman held the door for their escapades. His most important crusade was protecting the loopy accounting for corporate stock options. . . . Back in 1993, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed to stop it, Lieberman went to war. "I believe that the global pre-eminence of America's vital technological industries could be damaged by the proposal," he warned. The FASB, he insinuated, was politically motivated or simply didn't grasp the bright promise of the New Economy. Lieberman organized a series of letters warning the accountants' board to stop its meddling. In the Senate, he mobilized a resolution urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to squelch the reform."And Matt Taibi has some choice quotes in Rolling Stone from Lieberman's visit to a black church:
"He swoops in, tells a story about meeting Dr. King back in the day, shakes his head solemnly at the scourge of racism and then coasts to a Scripture-packed dismount.
'I hate the Sixties, and I'm tired of hearing about it—what have you done for me lately?' says Regina Meade, one of the churchgoers. She shakes her head. 'I lost a cousin in the war. Twenty-nine years old. What about that? What about that?'Josh Marshall
argues that the Lieberman's loss is a sign of a rift between Washington, the chattering class, and the voters.
Here's the
Daily Show on Lieberman's bad week.
If you have any doubts about whether Lieberman's early exit was a good thing, check out what he said about the foiled terror plot:
"If we just pick up like Ned Lamont wants us to do, get out by a date certain, it will be taken as a tremendous victory by the same people who wanted to blow up these planes in this plot hatched in England. It will strengthen them and they will strike again."Oy.
The Republican spin machine is busy this week, ready to
pounce on the success of a British & Pakistani effort to foil a terrorist plot that was headed for the U.S. But
Fred Kaplan points out that the British were able to get the upper hand due to an approach that the Bush administration eschews.
I'm unsure how this plays to the advantage of an administration who has tarnished our image around the muslim world (Iraq, Lebanon)and created more terrorists than I care to acknowledge. Blind hawkishness is not making our country safer, it's not working politically for the likes of Lieberman, but the punditry is still holding on tight. I can't quote it as I am subscriptionless, but David Brooks' latest column begins like this:
"A McCain-Lieberman Party is emerging because of deep trends that are polarizing our politics."These two media darlings do not have the answers for our current struggle.
Matthew Yglesias tears them down to size:
"Are there any Republicans whose national security views are clearly more hawkish than McCain's? I can't think of any. For that matter, are there any Republicans whose national security views are clearly more hawkish than Lieberman's? I can't think of any either. Of the politicians who seem to have clear convictions on the topic, these are, I think, the two leading militarists in the United States Senate. The only way you can get McCain-Lieberman as representing a "center" position on foreign policy is if you define the extreme conceptual right-wing pole as "whatever George W. Bush happens to think,” making any criticism of his policies a move to the left. In practice, however, both men's difference with Bush almost exclusively amount to the (frankly, absurd) view that he's been unduly hesitant to unleash military force."Lieberman & McCain. Foreign policy extremists. If this is the direction we follow post-Bush . . .
Regina Meade gets the last word.
"I lost a cousin in the war. Twenty-nine years old. What about that? What about that?"
12 Comments:
Allen still might be capable of talking himself out of this one, if someone on his staff takes the fall for saying "macaque" in the first place. He might have just misheard them saying "Mohawk," and forgotten the French slur he allegedly knew.
But it hurts, given his past Confederate flag-waving tendencies. Republicans are trying to mend fences with African-American voters, and could banish him to the sidelines as they did to Trent Lott.
Coming out of '04, the folksy, laid-back Allen seemed like the perfect heir to Bush. (Even his "good-humored" ribbing of Mr. Sidarth is reminiscent of Bush's conduct at press conferences). But now, w/ the Presidential approval rating still in the 30s, it just ain't cute anymore, even to Republicans.
Dems shouldn't concede VA, either. The state seems to be trending purple, and has a substantial African-American population that won't be amused by this incident. Allen's challenger Jim Webb has his troubles among African-Americans as well, having been opposed to affirmative action before he was for it, but this incident could level that playing field.
Webb is not a good campaigner, but he is a credible candidate who stands ready to benefit from an Allen implosion. He was almost 20 points down in the polls last week, but there's a lot of time left on the clock ...
This could be a good race. I don't see how someone from his staff can take the fall for saying it in the first place. The video on youtube has been downloaded 40,000 times, it was on CNN & MSNBC last night, and we can all watch Allen say it.
It's obscure, so it might not be clear to all what's so offensive, but there are plenty of believable explanations (all of them bad) and no believable excuse. Mohawk? This could get drilled into the media's consciousness more than the average voter. But at this point in the '08 positioning - it could be fatal.
Some more commentary from slate:
"For potential presidential candidates, the bar for showing intellectual heft will be higher after George W. Bush than it was before him. Based on the conversations I've had with GOP elites and fund-raisers, the candidate most likely to suffer from this heightened standard is George Allen . . . At least one person who has been wooed by the Allen camp came away from a meeting with the senator with this kiss-off of his chances: 'Too much like Bush.' . . . Unflattering moments become a candidate's signature when they confirm existing stereotypes."
John Dickerson seems see the GOP landscape the way DGL does.
I think I now know what dgl was referring to when he mentioned the staff saying it in the first place.
from the hotline blog:
"According to two Republicans who heard the word used, "macaca" was a mash-up of "Mohawk," referring to Sidarth's distinctive hair, and "caca," Spanish slang for excrement, or "shit."
Said one Republican close to the campaign: "In other words, he was a shit-head, an annoyance." . . .
Kristian Denny Todd, communications director for James Webb, said the new explanation rings hollow. "I don't know what's worse; calling this innocent 20-year-old a "shit head" or a racist slur"
I linked to this piece from James Wolcott's blog where he crown's Allen Senator Shithead. The title of Wolcott's post is TURD ON THE RUN.
Subhead from today's Hotline:
"Macaca Es Su Caca"...
Even the president seems to be distancing himself from himself . . . oh sweet alienation. Who knew that Jason Jones could make Heidegger funny?
Was going to link to the Daily Show bits on Allen, but technical difficulties have intervened. . . .
Looking forward to an update on the polls, DGL.
Nothing on VA yet, but here are some poll results you may NOT like so much:
A Quinnipiac poll has Lieberman beating Lamont 53-41% among likely voters in the general election. Democrats go for Lamont 63% to 35%, but it's Joementum in a landslide among Indies (58 to 36) and even more so among Republicans (75 to 13, w/ only 10% in favor of the actual GOP candidate, Schlesinger).
Also, since we've been talking foreign policy lately: a Zogby poll asks respondents whether, "In a world where the principle (sic) enemies are terrorists, diplomacy is outdated." The party split is stunning: 46% of Republicans "strongly agree" with this statement, while another 33% "somewhat agree." The numbers for Democrats are almost the exact opposite. It doesn't get more stark than that.
I guess I know which party I'm in.
More ingenious web satire, this time from Huffington Post ...
from talkingpointsmemo:
VA-SEN: Poll: Allen's Lead Over Webb Shrinks To Three Points
By Greg Sargent | bio
GOP incumbent Senator George Allen's "Macaca" remarks have turned the contest with Dem challenger James Webb into a real race. An exclusive Survey USA poll done for WUSA-TV shows that Allen's once-double-digit lead over Webb has shriveled to three points -- 48% to 45%. From the WUSA analysis: "Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters, he has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing." Don't mess with Macaca!
Well, there you go.
The mainstream outlets (other than WUSA) haven't picked up on this yet. It'll be interesting to see whether other polls bear this pattern out.
Also, I think some new numbers are coming out today showing Lamont nearly catching up to Lieberman. More later.
Okay fine, I'll do it:
From CNN:
"A new poll by the American Research Group indicated a statistical dead heat in the U.S. Senate race in Connecticut between upstart Democratic nominee Ned Lamont and incumbent Sen. Joseph Lieberman."
So there we go. As I've said before, in no less clichéd a fashioin than now, hope springs eternal.
The story, I know, is premium content, but the Economist has an encouraging piece on the "anti-war centre" in the US.
This passage confirms DGL's mention of the party-line split on issues of, well, war, though it adds an encouraging twist about that supposed 'centre':
"Attitudes still break down sharply along party lines, with Republicans much keener on the war than Democrats. Gradually, though, independent voters have crept into the peacenik camp. An anti-war left has been joined by an anti-war centre."
This comment is too long, but I'll let the Economist close with a refreshing--to my mind--discussion of the supposed effects of those Net-roots folks who keep getting so much, um, press coverage these days:
"Mr Lieberman's camp blames many of his troubles on anti-war blogs such as the Daily Kos, and even accuses left-wing hackers of bringing down his website the day before the election. They exaggerate. It is doubtful that many Connecticut Democrats were swayed by a blog, particularly one as indigestible as the Daily Kos. The site, together with others, such as Moveon.org, raised money for Mr Lamont's campaign, but that mattered little to a candidate who was prepared to spend so much of his own fortune. Tom Swan, Mr Lamont's campaign manager, says the blogs supplied fewer than one dollar out of every ten that was spent on the race."
In fairness I ought to add that the Economist, while reasonable in their analysis of the CT situation and that centre, insists on arguing for a continued US presence (and no timetable) in Iraq. They even stooped to using that childish 'cut and run' phrase, alas.
We sure are seeing a lot of poll movement this week. Macaca-gate seems to have some legs, and CT voters just can't make up their minds.
Last week's Quinnipiac poll in CT showed only 2% of voters were undecided, but this new American Research Group poll Yancy cites seems to show a lot of voters moving out of the Lieberman column and into undecided, which is now at 11%, I think.
American Research Group is also showing Bush down at 36% approval while other polls have him on the upswing, at about 42%. I wonder if ARG polls tend to skew leftward, or if they know something no one else knows.
A Rasmussen Group poll has Webb within 5 points of Allen, so the WUSA poll may not be an anomaly.
The Democrats desperately need unexpected pickups like VA if they are to take over the Senate. MT, PA, MO, OH, and RI, all look good right now, but that still wouldn't be enough, esp. since they might lose Democratic seats in WA or NJ. They need to pull an upset in either VA, TN, or AZ, to have a shot.
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